Minnesota Vikings +7
On the face of it, this pick makes absolutely no sense. After all, the opening price tag of 5' points has shot up in an instant with official word that Minnesota's star wide receiver Randy Moss will NOT play due to a lingering hamstring injury. Moss, who had played in 103 consecutive games, already has caught 8 touchdown passes. In 9 career Monday Night appearances, Moss has 11 touchdown catches and FIVE different 100+ yard receiving efforts. This pick really is ridiculous when you consider that Minnesota RB Mewelde Moore is also going to MISS this evening due to injury. However, I have several reasons why I am going "against the grain" tonight. First of all, we now have LINE VALUE with Moss' injury. Secondly, we have an inflated price-tag on a prohibitive favorite (Indianapolis) that has been unable to slow down the competition defensively. The simple fact of the matter is that Indianapolis has surrendered an NFL WORST 418 yards per game, which makes the odds of a "margin" victory rather thin. I will admit that tonight is the first Monday Night HOME game for the Colts since the year 2000, which has the locals all excited. However, that intangible is negated somewhat because the Vikings entered this campaign with a prolonged MNF ABSENCE. That streak ended early this season when Minnesota failed to cover in a road affair at Philadelphia. Considering that the Eagles were the league's last undefeated team, one can not fault Minnesota for failing back in week two. BOTH of tonight's combatants had better find a way to find an effective RUSHING attack real soon to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender because both squads have huge failings on the defensive side of the football. The best way to keep the defense off the field is to win the TIME/POSSESSION battle. Of course, tonight's marquee event features the two top-rated quarterbacks in the league. My research tells me there is not much statistical difference between Peyton Manning and Daunte Culpepper. Manning has thrown for a grand total of 2,165 yards while Culpepper is slighty ahead with a figure of 2,180. Due to the injury to Randy Moss, Manning has gained a slight lead in the overall passer rating. Once again, there is NOT much difference statistically between the 2 signal callers, which is why I am TAKING the points. Another reason why I like the Vikings to stay close is that they have the better RUSHING attack which helps offset the loss of Moss. Early in the season, everyone was making a big deal about Minnesota's lack of depth at the running back slot due to injury. Rookie Mewelde Moore stepped in for the suspended Onterrio Smith and the injured Michael Bennett without much difficulty. Now Smith is back from suspension and Bennett is finally healthy enough to play. The next factor I want to bring up is MINDSET. Minnesota knows that they do NOT want to make the mistake of a year ago when they got off to a 6-0 start, only to falter down the stretch following an 0-4 losing skid. Since this team went through that awful experience a year ago which cost them a playoff spot, Minnesota has more overall "character" in 2004. Sometimes it is actually EASIER to recover from a blowout defeat, as opposed to a CLOSE setback. The Vikings were down 34-0 at home to the Giants last week, while the Colts recovered from a 31-14 deficit at Kansas City only to just barely fall short on the scoreboard. As I said at the beginning of this segment, going with the Vikings makes no sense since they are WITHOUT a stud wide receiver, a quality running back and a pair of linebackers tonight due to injury. However, I want all of you to know that ALL FOUR of the Colts' starting defensive backs were on the injured list this week. Two of the four will MISS tonight's contest (safeties Mike Doss and Corey Bird). Those injuries to the Colts defense will help offset Minnesota's loss of Randy Moss. It is rare that we have a team like Minnesota that leads the NFL in total offense (431 ypg) GETTING 7 points from the oddsmakers. From the database, I have found that the Vikings long-term are a solid 25-12 ATS proposition since 1992 against good offensive squads like the Colts who average at least 24 points per game. I am fully aware of Minnesota's difficulties on the ROAD. However, note that the Colts are a dismal 1-6 ATS/HOME the past 3 years in weeks 5-through-9.
GOOD LUCK
On the face of it, this pick makes absolutely no sense. After all, the opening price tag of 5' points has shot up in an instant with official word that Minnesota's star wide receiver Randy Moss will NOT play due to a lingering hamstring injury. Moss, who had played in 103 consecutive games, already has caught 8 touchdown passes. In 9 career Monday Night appearances, Moss has 11 touchdown catches and FIVE different 100+ yard receiving efforts. This pick really is ridiculous when you consider that Minnesota RB Mewelde Moore is also going to MISS this evening due to injury. However, I have several reasons why I am going "against the grain" tonight. First of all, we now have LINE VALUE with Moss' injury. Secondly, we have an inflated price-tag on a prohibitive favorite (Indianapolis) that has been unable to slow down the competition defensively. The simple fact of the matter is that Indianapolis has surrendered an NFL WORST 418 yards per game, which makes the odds of a "margin" victory rather thin. I will admit that tonight is the first Monday Night HOME game for the Colts since the year 2000, which has the locals all excited. However, that intangible is negated somewhat because the Vikings entered this campaign with a prolonged MNF ABSENCE. That streak ended early this season when Minnesota failed to cover in a road affair at Philadelphia. Considering that the Eagles were the league's last undefeated team, one can not fault Minnesota for failing back in week two. BOTH of tonight's combatants had better find a way to find an effective RUSHING attack real soon to be a legitimate Super Bowl contender because both squads have huge failings on the defensive side of the football. The best way to keep the defense off the field is to win the TIME/POSSESSION battle. Of course, tonight's marquee event features the two top-rated quarterbacks in the league. My research tells me there is not much statistical difference between Peyton Manning and Daunte Culpepper. Manning has thrown for a grand total of 2,165 yards while Culpepper is slighty ahead with a figure of 2,180. Due to the injury to Randy Moss, Manning has gained a slight lead in the overall passer rating. Once again, there is NOT much difference statistically between the 2 signal callers, which is why I am TAKING the points. Another reason why I like the Vikings to stay close is that they have the better RUSHING attack which helps offset the loss of Moss. Early in the season, everyone was making a big deal about Minnesota's lack of depth at the running back slot due to injury. Rookie Mewelde Moore stepped in for the suspended Onterrio Smith and the injured Michael Bennett without much difficulty. Now Smith is back from suspension and Bennett is finally healthy enough to play. The next factor I want to bring up is MINDSET. Minnesota knows that they do NOT want to make the mistake of a year ago when they got off to a 6-0 start, only to falter down the stretch following an 0-4 losing skid. Since this team went through that awful experience a year ago which cost them a playoff spot, Minnesota has more overall "character" in 2004. Sometimes it is actually EASIER to recover from a blowout defeat, as opposed to a CLOSE setback. The Vikings were down 34-0 at home to the Giants last week, while the Colts recovered from a 31-14 deficit at Kansas City only to just barely fall short on the scoreboard. As I said at the beginning of this segment, going with the Vikings makes no sense since they are WITHOUT a stud wide receiver, a quality running back and a pair of linebackers tonight due to injury. However, I want all of you to know that ALL FOUR of the Colts' starting defensive backs were on the injured list this week. Two of the four will MISS tonight's contest (safeties Mike Doss and Corey Bird). Those injuries to the Colts defense will help offset Minnesota's loss of Randy Moss. It is rare that we have a team like Minnesota that leads the NFL in total offense (431 ypg) GETTING 7 points from the oddsmakers. From the database, I have found that the Vikings long-term are a solid 25-12 ATS proposition since 1992 against good offensive squads like the Colts who average at least 24 points per game. I am fully aware of Minnesota's difficulties on the ROAD. However, note that the Colts are a dismal 1-6 ATS/HOME the past 3 years in weeks 5-through-9.
GOOD LUCK
